Are we still in a bull market or entering a more unstable phase?

Good Day Hustlrs,

U.S. stocks flirted with record highs again last week powered by AI and mega‑cap tech, even with oil above $100 and bond yields at their highest in a year.

But beneath the surface, the story was far less comfortable:

For African investors, everything funnels into one question:

Are we still in a bull market or entering a more unstable phase?

Let’s get started.

QUICK BREW: WHAT MOVED THE MARKETS

Here’s a quick summary of the week’s main drivers:

• U.S. inflation picked up again

• Producer prices surprised sharply higher

• Consumers kept spending, but momentum slowed

• Kevin Warsh officially took over the Federal Reserve

• Oil stayed above $100 as the Iran war disrupted supply routes

• The Trump and Xi summit brought friendly statements but no major agreements

• AI chip demand pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward fresh highs

• Bitcoin slipped as ETFs saw heavy outflows

THE BIG PICTURE: WHAT IT ALL MEANS

Inflation is heating up again

Prices increased more than the Fed would like, with April inflation at 3.8% year-on-year (“U.S. prices rose 3.8% year-on-year”). 

Energy and housing costs, both affected by the Iran conflict, were the main drivers. 

Producer prices also jumped, pointing to higher business costs that could impact consumers or company profits. Bond yields rose as a result. 

A week ago, the bond market expected the Fed to cut interest rates this year. 

Today, traders are pricing in a 51 chance the Fed actually raises them at the December meeting. 

That's a complete reversal in seven days, driven by oil sitting above $100 and four straight days of inflation data coming in too hot

Consumers are still spending but more cautiously

Retail sales grew modestly, and overall spending remains higher than last year. 

The U.S. economy is not collapsing, but it is slowing down. African exporters should pay close attention to this trend.

A new Fed chair walks into a storm

Kevin Warsh replaces Jerome Powell with:

• Sticky inflation

• A divided Fed

• A president publicly pushing for rate cuts

Markets don’t yet know whether he’ll prioritize growth or crush inflation and that uncertainty alone is a risk.

The data on his desk:

51 chance of a December hike priced in (was zero a week ago)

60 chance by January, 71 by March

April CPI hottest since 2023

Warsh has historically leaned hawkish, and the data gives him cover to stay there. His first public comments set the tone for rates through year-end.

Oil has become a geopolitical weapon

Oil remains the clearest winner of this macro environment. 

Energy stocks globally are up strongly (“the Energy sector is up more than 30% YTD”).

• Oil‑exporting African countries benefit through stronger revenues

• Import‑heavy economies face inflation and fiscal pressure

A ceasefire in the Gulf could cool prices, but for now, policymakers seem willing to tolerate higher oil.

With Brent crude at about $111 (“Brent crude sits around $111 a barrel”), oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola are seeing gains. 

Countries that rely on imports, like Kenya and Egypt, are facing pressure from subsidies and inflation.

Trump–Xi talks changed little

The Beijing meeting improved the tone but did not resolve tariffs, tech restrictions, or tensions over Taiwan. China agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets (rumored at 750), billions in soybeans, and US oil shipments. What didn't happen mattered more:

No tariff cuts discussed

Nvidia chip sale never came up

Rare earths truce expires this fall with no extension

AI is still carrying Wall Street

Cisco’s positive AI outlook and Cerebras’s strong IPO helped the S&P 500 reach its 17th record close this year (“The S&P 500 hit its 17th record close of the year”). However, rising yields soon slowed the rally, showing investors how much tech valuations depend on interest rates.

Bitcoin is trading like a tech stock

Bitcoin finished the week close to $80,000, but the main story was the $1 billion in ETF outflows (“spot Bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $1 billion”). Crypto is now moving in line with high-growth tech stocks and tends to struggle when yields go up.

THIS WEEK BY THE NUMBERS

SECTORS WINNERS AND LOSERS

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR MONEY

1. AI vs. Rising Yields: The Main Battle

Stocks connected to AI remain the strongest force in global markets. Chips, cloud, and data center infrastructure are still attracting large investments. However, higher interest rates are beginning to challenge these valuations (“Hot CPI and PPI prints pushed the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield toward 4.6%”).

If you’re investing from Africa:

AI is still a long-term growth driver, but it is now closely linked to U.S. interest rate changes. It is better to have a diversified portfolio than to rely on single stocks.

2. Energy: Great for Exporters, Tough for Importers

Oil is still the biggest winner in this economic environment. Energy stocks around the world have risen sharply (“the Energy sector is up more than 30% YTD”).

• Oil‑exporting African countries benefit through stronger revenues

• Import‑heavy economies face inflation and fiscal pressure

A ceasefire in the Gulf could lower prices, but for now, policymakers appear willing to accept higher oil prices.

3. Bonds, the Dollar, and African Markets

Rising U.S. yields raise borrowing costs everywhere (“The 10 year U.S. Treasury approaching 4.6% is a big deal”). 

A stronger dollar pressures African currencies and makes refinancing eurobonds more expensive.

Watch how African central banks respond. Will they defend their currencies or support growth? This decision will affect local bond returns.

4. Gold vs. Bitcoin: Very Different Hedges

Gold dropped even though inflation was high, because real yields increased. Bitcoin acted more like a high-risk tech stock than a hedge (“Bitcoin… traded like a risky tech stock”).

• Gold may shine later if inflation keeps surprising

• Bitcoin should stay a small, speculative part of your portfolio

THE BOTTOM LINE

Markets can hit record highs even when the macro backdrop looks uncomfortable.

AI and mega‑cap tech are doing the heavy lifting while inflation, oil, and geopolitics create friction.

You can’t control CPI or global politics but you can control:

• Concentration

• Liquidity

• Understanding

The edge belongs to investors who separate durable themes from short‑term noise.

Treat weeks like this as information, not intimidation and you’re already ahead of most of the market.

The Global Hustlr Team

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